Across the UK and EU, workplace safety is under increasing scrutiny.

Safety leaders face growing pressure from clients, regulators, and investors to demonstrate proactive risk management. ESG reporting frameworks and supply chain transparency requirements mean that safety performance is now a key metric for corporate governance. This shift demands moving beyond compliance-driven approaches to predictive, data-led strategies.

Legislation in the UK such as ISO 45001, the Health and Safety at Work Act 1974, and EU directives like Directive 89/391/EEC on the introduction of measures to encourage improvements in the safety and health of workers at work, demand more than compliance — they require proactive risk management.

Many organisations still rely heavily on the use of lagging indicators like Accident Frequency Rate (AFR), Accident Incident Rate (AIR), lost time incidents, major or minor injuries, and notices issued by government agencies.  While these metrics can be useful for reporting what has already happened, they do little to prevent or predict future harm.

To create a resilient safety culture,; organisations must also start using a range of leading indicators. These are proactive measures that provide early warning signs of potential hazards, enabling intervention before harm occurs.

This shift is not just a regulatory necessity; it’s a strategic advantage that improves safety outcomes, operational efficiency, and business resilience.

Why Lagging Indicators Are No Longer Enough

Lagging indicators are retrospective; they tell you what went wrong, but only after the fact. While useful for compliance reporting, they cannot predict emerging risks or help organisations intervene early.

This reactive approach leaves businesses exposed to:

• Regulatory penalties under frameworks like the Health and Safety at Work Act 1974, Management of Health and Safety at Work Regulations 1999, and EU directives such as Directive 89/391/EEC.
• Reputational damage, which can impact client trust and contract renewals.
• Human tragedy, with consequences that extend beyond financial cost.

In the UK, workplace injuries and ill health cost an estimated £21.6 billion annually, while across the EU, the cost exceeds €476 billion. Fatal accident rates for small firms remain roughly double those of larger organisations, underscoring the need for proactive oversight.

These figures highlight a critical truth: relying solely on lagging indicators means acting too late. By the time AFR or AIR trends reveal a problem, the harm has already occurred, often with severe financial, legal, and human consequences.

Despite decades of progress in reducing workplace injuries, many industries have hit a plateau. Traditional metrics like AFR and AIR show incremental improvements, but serious injuries and fatalities persist. This stagnation suggests that compliance-driven approaches are no longer enough to deliver meaningful safety gains.

In modern safety thinking, accidents rarely stem from a single mistake. Instead, they are the result of deeper systemic weaknesses within an organisation. Professor James Reason’s influential model of organisational accidents distinguishes between active failures — the immediate unsafe acts at the “sharp end” of operations — and latent conditions, such as poor design, inadequate training, ineffective procedures, weak supervision, or cultural shortcomings.

These latent conditions often lie dormant until they align with active failures, creating a pathway for an incident to occur. This concept is famously illustrated by the “Swiss Cheese Model”, where holes in multiple layers of defence line up, allowing hazards to slip through.

The implication for safety leaders is clear: focusing solely on human error or retrospective metrics like AFR and AIR is misleading. True improvement requires uncovering and addressing these systemic factors before they combine into a serious event.

This shift in perspective underpins the value of leading indicators, which provide early warning signals and enable proactive intervention, rather than reactive blame after harm has occurred.

What Are Leading Indicators?

Leading indicators are proactive, predictive measures that signal potential hazards before they cause harm. Leading indicators are not just about prediction; they reflect behaviours, processes, and conditions that influence safety outcomes.

Examples include:

• Near-miss reporting rates: Tracking near misses helps identify patterns before they escalate into injuries.  
• Safety observations and audits completed: Regular checks reveal gaps in compliance and training.  
• Training completion and competency scores: Ensures workers have the skills to perform tasks safely.  
• Preventive maintenance schedules: Reduces equipment-related risks before failure occurs.  
• Worker engagement in safety programmes: High participation signals a strong safety culture.

By tracking these metrics, organisations can identify patterns, anticipate risks, and take corrective action before incidents occur.

The Business Value of Leading Indicators

Leading indicators, such as near-miss reporting, audit completion rates, and training compliance, offer predictive insights. They enable organisations to identify patterns, anticipate hazards, and intervene before incidents occur. This proactive stance aligns with regulatory expectations for risk assessment and preventive measures.

Moving to leading indicators therefore delivers measurable benefits:

1. Stronger Safety Culture

Leading indicators foster engagement by making safety everyone’s responsibility. For example, implementing a near-miss reporting programme encourages workers to share observations without fear of blame.

This proactive approach builds trust and transparency, creating a culture where hazards are addressed before harm occurs. Organisations that actively track near-miss reports often see a measurable increase in workforce participation and safety ownership.

2. Reduced Incidents and Costs

Proactive measures, such as near-miss reporting and continuous monitoring, correlate with significant reductions in AFR, AIR, and fatalities. Reducing incidents also means reducing costs due to fewer compensation claims, less downtime, and improved productivity.

3. Compliance and Regulatory Readiness

Regulators increasingly expect organisations to demonstrate proactive risk management.

• UK: The HSE’s guidance on proactive monitoring aligns with ISO 45001 requirements for continual improvement and worker participation.
• EU: Directive 89/391/EEC and related directives emphasise preventive measures and risk assessment as core obligations.

Companies that adopt leading indicators not only meet compliance requirements but also position themselves as industry leaders in safety governance.

4. Operational Efficiency and Resilience

Leading indicators enable organisations to act before risks escalate, reducing costly disruptions. Predictive insights help prioritise resources, streamline audits, and maintain continuity across multi-employer worksites.

Making the Case for Change

Transitioning to leading indicators is not just about ticking boxes; it’s about transforming safety from a compliance obligation into a strategic advantage.

Organisations that embrace this shift:

• Build trust and engagement across their workforce
• Reduce serious injuries and fatalities
• Demonstrate compliance with evolving UK and EU regulations
• Unlock operational efficiencies and cost savings

Rather than managing fragmented safety processes manually, Avetta enables organisations to centralise safety programmes, automate compliance tracking, and gain real-time visibility across suppliers and worksites.

This approach reduces administrative burden, frees up internal resources, and lowers costs while improving safety outcomes and regulatory readiness.

For example, organisations have seen savings of up to £92,081 (€105,929) per year (79.95% cost reduction) compared to manual processes covering paperwork, training, data verification, and contractor support.

Crucially, Avetta users in the UK and EU see a 64% lower fatality rate for compliant suppliers with real-time monitoring.

By digitising qualification, monitoring, and reporting, businesses can move from reactive oversight to proactive risk management, ensuring resilience and efficiency at scale.

How Safety Leaders Can Get Started with Leading Indicators

Moving from reactive to proactive safety doesn’t happen overnight. Here are four practical steps to begin:

1. Audit current metrics and identify gaps: Review existing KPIs and determine where lagging indicators dominate. Highlight areas where predictive insights could add value.
2. Set KPIs for proactive measures: Establish targets for leading indicators such as near-miss reporting rates, audit completion, and training compliance.
3. Integrate technology for real-time monitoring: Use a platform like Avetta to centralise safety data, automate compliance checks, and provide dashboards for quick decision-making.
4. Train teams on reporting and engagement: Educate workers on the importance of proactive reporting and create a no-blame culture that encourages participation.

Be Predictive, Not Reactive

The future of safety performance lies in prediction, not reaction. Adopting leading indicators, UK and EU organisations can help your business move beyond compliance, create safer workplaces, and achieve measurable business impact. This is not just good practice, it’s good business.

Outdated supplier management drains profitability and amplifies risk. Avetta makes shift to proactive risk monitoring easier. By centralising safety programmes, automating compliance, and providing real-time insights, we help businesses and suppliers get ready to work without worry. When every partner is aligned and equipped, readiness becomes your advantage.

Download our whitepaper, The Cost of Inaction: Why Modernising Supply Chain Risk Strategies Cannot Wait, to learn how modernising supplier management cuts costs, strengthens continuity, and builds resilience in a world where disruption is the norm.

Avetta is a SaaS software company providing supply chain risk management solutions. Avetta’s contractor management platform is trusted by 130,000+ suppliers in over 120 countries. Visit Avetta.com to learn how our solutions help businesses reduce risk and operate with confidence.